Current Risks: Getting Better or Worse?

New: the House voted 211-204 on Nov 10 to refer Massie's Hegseth impeachment resolution to the Judiciary Committee, effectively killing it this Congress; Massie was the only Republican against, all Democrats voted no; Speaker Johnson: "We'll dispense with the impeachment gambit"; Trump posted that Democrats "FAILED" (ABC). House Republicans picked Jim Jordan as leader and Senate Republicans John Thune (CNN, The Hill). DOJ Civil Division head Shumate resigned, the fourth DOJ departure in a week (The Hill). Trump's Nov 9 Truth Social post questioning whether the election was "honest" (CNBC) has not been followed by any lawsuit, order or certification challenge. Stephen Miller is chief of staff; AG Blanche backs a DOJ inquiry into Democrats' impeachment threats (Axios). Mississippi Senate county certification Nov 13; Alaska count Nov 18. Dec 11 funding deadline. Routine: none on the worsening list found. Direction MIXED: the impeachment fight was settled by a vote, while election-doubt rhetoric and DOJ turmoil continue.

No attack causing casualties on US soil and no new NTAS bulletin. New: US forces in the UK are under a specific Iranian threat: tankers moved out of RAF Mildenhall Nov 9, Mildenhall and Lakenheath at FPCON Charlie (WSJ via Reuters, Bloomberg, CNN). Background: Sept arrests at RAF Fairford, two on suspicion of assisting Iranian intelligence; the IRGC called Fairford a legitimate target in July. France blamed IRGC-linked Shahid Kaveh for sabotaging refrigeration at about 700 supermarkets (AP, Nov 9); CISA, FBI and three agencies warned Nov 5 that US cold-chain controllers are being attacked (Nextgov); the Pentagon is probing commissary freezer failures at six or more US bases (cause unconfirmed). New Nov 10: the Justice Department unsealed an indictment of three alleged Iran-backed operatives, one in US custody, accused of about 18 attacks in Europe, an attempted bombing of a Manhattan synagogue in March to April 2026, and the RAF Fairford plot (DOJ SDNY, BBC); allegations, not convictions. Trump says the FBI is looking at whether Nvidia's CEO was targeted by foreign intelligence (Reuters). Standing: AA26-097A, Volt Typhoon, Iran's "without geographical limitation" threat, NORAD Avenger air defenses at Mar-a-Lago. Satellite, GPS, cable and cloud checks: no new US GPS or satellite disruption, major cable cut or large cloud outage found in the past 7 days; Russian satellite GPS jamming over Europe (reported since June) remains background.

New: US tankers relocated from RAF Mildenhall; two UK bases at FPCON Charlie (Reuters/WSJ, Bloomberg). Reuters (Nov 9) says Trump agreed to pause further strikes after Gulf appeals; he says the US is "locked and loaded" and has another carrier in the region "loaded up to the gills" (Fox, AP). Reported this week: CENTCOM's roughly three-day campaign plan is finalized (NYT); Task Force Iron Gate extends the blockade to land and Caspian routes. Standing: Pentagon FORTRESS (bases 90 days off-grid), Army mass temporary burial drills, UK 1,000-day readiness goal and Strategic Reserve recall to 65. No US mobilization, reserve call-up or leave cancellation found. Direction MIXED: preparations and force protection rising, strike tempo paused.

No new public warning since the last report. FPCON Charlie at two UK bases is a military protection level, not a public warning. Past week: US Missions UAE and Saudi Arabia warned of an "increased threat of armed attacks" (Nov 7); non-emergency US staff ordered out of Saudi Arabia (Oct 30); Saudi Civil Defence alerts (Nov 8), later cleared; Gulf airline suspensions to Nov 16 to 25; UK "Be Ready" campaign (Oct 23). No new US federal domestic war warning. Direction stays WORSE on the Nov 7 alerts; it moves to No Change if the week passes quietly.

De-escalation talk, no deal. New Nov 11: Iran's SNSC secretary Rezaei calls reports of talks or a Qatar meeting "a pure lie", says the US reply is "insufficient and deceptive" and Hormuz stays shut until Iran's seven conditions are met; Rubio: "The economic campaign is so devastating that right now there is no need for major combat operations"; maritime monitors count at least 37 attacks on ships in and near the strait in November so far, the war's highest monthly total (Al Jazeera, Reuters). Iran also named Argentina's navy and air force terrorist organizations (UPI). Trump (Nov 9): war "militarily effectively over", new strikes "quite unlikely" (AP, AFP); Reuters says he agreed to pause strikes after Gulf appeals; blockade and Iron Gate continue. Iran (Nov 10): FM Araghchi denies a Rezaei-Vance meeting and says the war ends only with "acceptance of the Islamic Republic's conditions"; Baghaei says sanctions relief and an end to the blockade must come first; Iran's two-day Hormuz plan stays on the table. Turkish intelligence chief Kalin says a Doha meeting is set for next week (contradicted). Force in use within 7 days: limited US strikes Nov 2 to 3 and Nov 6 (AP); IRGC claims three tankers hit mines Nov 8 (unconfirmed; CENTCOM says main routes were cleared of mines); UKMTO counted 11 attacks and 3 sinkings Nov 1 to 8. New: Iranian threat forces US aircraft out of RAF Mildenhall (Reuters/WSJ). Trump wants Israel and Gulf states to repay war costs (Al Jazeera). Israel: Herzog tasked Netanyahu rival Eisenkot with forming a government (Nov 7, Al Jazeera, AP). An Iranian provincial official says Qeshm was targeted again Nov 8 to 9 (state TV via Euronews; US silent, unconfirmed). New Nov 10: an ADNOC Supply and Services vessel was damaged in an attack in UAE territorial waters, no casualties reported, no attribution (WAM via Khaleej Times, Anadolu, Xinhua); the IRGC Navy commander (Nov 11, IRNA) says the US is "luring helpless oil tankers into walls of fire"; SNSC secretary Rezaei repeats Iran's seven conditions; Rubio at the G7 (Nov 9): "no progress", Iran's demands "outrageous and ridiculous"; the US Treasury asked Iraq to close all but two border crossings with Iran (Iraqi FM); Canada reimposed sanctions on 11 Iranian entities (Reuters). Brent slipped below $90 Nov 10, first time since August (Reuters).

New: Abu Dhabi ended Nov 11 after a day-two session of under two hours with no agreement announced (dpa, Bloomberg, RFE/RL); Kushner: "We are encouraged by the constructive discussions today"; Zelensky says 1,000-for-1,000 or 1,500-for-1,500 prisoner swaps are under consideration and wants Europe to pick a negotiator by end of November, possibly at a Nov 19 coalition meeting in Germany; Witkoff and Kushner may go to Moscow, then Kyiv; Russia raised territory (Kyiv Post). Overnight Russia hit six major power facilities in four regions and Kryvyi Rih lost power and heat; Ukrainian drones set Ust-Luga port on fire, three injured (RFE/RL). Gap check: a Nov 7 Krakow shooting (6 killed) is treated by Poland as far-right terrorism, not linked to Russia. Earlier: Abu Dhabi day one (Nov 10) ran about four hours; a senior Ukrainian official says a large-scale prisoner swap was discussed (AP); Rubio called it "very productive" and said Europeans should eventually join; Zelensky called it "constructive and quite substantive", with prisoner releases, security guarantees and de-escalation discussed; a US official told Reuters both sides privately showed some willingness to compromise on territory; (People's Daily/Xinhua, Kyiv Post). Direction MIXED: talks moving while grid strikes continue. Abu Dhabi three-way talks (Nov 10 to 11), first since February: Kushner says contacts "narrowed the gaps"; Lavrov says no immediate ceasefire without knowing what follows (Reuters); Umerov: "We have moved to the trilateral Ukraine-US-Russia format" (Ukrinform). As talks opened Russia struck five major substations; outages in six regions including Kyiv, two killed in Vinnytsia (Reuters); 162 drones and one ballistic missile overnight (Ukrainian Air Force via AP). Zelenskyy: 115 missiles and over 3,000 drones last week; Kyiv Patriot shortage. Russian drones have hit at least 12 merchant ships in the Black Sea since October (CNN). Reuters: dozens of hoax bomb threats against European flights since Nov 3, Spain calls it "hybrid aggression", unattributed. Poland arrested two Ukrainians accused of spying and sabotage for Russian intelligence; the UK will spend 90 million pounds on drones, sensors and AI against Russian undersea threats (Reuters via Just Security). The White House is "cautiously optimistic" and Witkoff and Kushner may go on to see Zelenskyy and Putin (Axios). No strike on NATO territory.

New: Taiwan's Defense Minister Wellington Koo said Nov 10 that China is conducting unannounced "area denial" drills in the Western Pacific involving the Liaoning carrier group and other naval formations, and that they threaten regional peace; Taiwan's security chief Joseph Wu said last week more than 100 Chinese naval and coast guard ships were operating off Taiwan, in the South China Sea and the Pacific; the MND reported a large rise in Chinese aircraft around Taiwan last week (Reuters via Taipei Times). An AEI and ISW report (Nov 6) said the activity may rehearse isolating Taiwan. China has declared no drill; it called the Liaoning's Pacific training "annual routine" last month. No blockade or quarantine, and no report that the Liaoning group is heading north toward Japan. Trump is to meet Xi at APEC in Shenzhen next week; Taiwan holds local elections Nov 28. Rare-earth and port-fee pauses run to Jan 10 (Reuters). Inference: pressure, not imminent attack, but larger than earlier runs showed.

No official alert change by any nuclear state and no new official nuclear threat. IRGC spokesman Mohebbi (Nov 7) said preparations would be made if Iran changes its nuclear doctrine; Iran remains in the NPT and is not nuclear-armed, a watch item, not tripwire (d). Trump ruled out US nuclear use against Iran (Oct 16). Iran holds 440.9 kg of 60% enriched uranium (IAEA); the Qatari framework reportedly includes inspections (Axios). Russia's Oct 28 Bulava test was pre-notified; three of four UK Vanguard boats reported at sea, no MoD statement; New START expired Feb 5. Russia's Ryabkov, its arms-control deputy FM, is in the Abu Dhabi delegation.

October CPI +0.4% vs 0.3% expected (Labor Department, Nov 10, via CBS). Close Nov 10: S&P 500 about -0.4%, Nasdaq -0.7%, Dow -0.3%; Nvidia -5.5%, briefly below $4 trillion; the 10-year yield rose back above 5% (CNBC via Stocktitan). Fed Governor Waller: hike at least 25 basis points in December, consider 50 if prices accelerate; CME FedWatch about 99% odds of a hike (Reuters via Yahoo Finance). VIX about 21. Brent below $90, first time since August; WTI about $85.7 (Reuters). Anthropic IPO (ANT): prospectus says up to $64.4 billion raised, up to $1.4 trillion fully diluted valuation; roadshow under way, target Nasdaq debut Nov 19 or 20 (Reuters, WSJ). Dec 11 funding deadline. Inference: a rate-hike shock on top of an AI-led correction; tighter but not a crisis; no bank stress found.

NOAA SWPC 3-day forecast (issued 12:30 UTC Nov 10): max Kp 3 Nov 10 to 12, no storms expected; no G4 or G5 watch. ISO New England Normal (9:03 am Nov 11). NWS Boston (6:05 am Nov 11): prolonged rain Thursday to Saturday, possible change to snow in the Berkshires and Worcester Hills Thursday night with only minor accumulation, gusts to about 30 kt Thursday to Friday; no land watches or warnings. Outbreaks now tracked in category 12. No large US power or communications outage reported.

Saudi-Houthi war: Saudi Arabia intercepted missiles at Riyadh Nov 8, 9 and again early Nov 10 (shelter alerts, schools online; Saudi jets struck Sanaa, AFP); the East-West pipeline was attacked Nov 9, limited fire, still operating (Saudi Press Agency via AFP); debris damaged an Aramco building in Riyadh (Saudi Energy Ministry via Reuters); UN counts more than 1,600 killed since July. Iraq: Nov 8 drone strike on Khor Mor gas field cut power to over 70% of Iraqi Kurdistan (Al Jazeera). North Korea: fourth launch in about a month (Nov 4, Reuters); KCNA claims new air-defense and cruise missile tests; Kim Yo Jong rules out talks. No new war between states found; nothing new found on Venezuela, India-Pakistan or Israel-Lebanon this run. Inference: tripwire (i) not met.

Ebola (Bundibugyo): WHO declared a public health emergency of international concern on May 17, 2026 and it remains in force (ECDC, Nov 3). About 10,990 confirmed cases and 5,354 deaths in the DRC as of Nov 10, roughly a 49% fatality rate, community spread in eight provinces; Kenya 9 cases and 2 deaths, all linked to one imported case; Nigeria one imported case, evacuated to Switzerland; Uganda's outbreak ended Aug 27 (ECDC, CDC data via Contagion Live). Armed fighters attacked five Ebola facilities in North Kivu from Nov 4, burning three and scattering hundreds of patients; Africa CDC called the attacks "reportedly ADF-linked" (Tech Times, single outlet). No approved Bundibugyo vaccine or drug. CDC requires all US air arrivals to attest they were not in the DRC in the past 21 days (order to Dec 18); no US case; CDC and ECDC rate risk to the public as low. H5N1: Washington reported the first US bird flu death of 2026 on Nov 1, three human cases there since mid-October, all tied to dairy cows, no person-to-person spread (AP). Gap check, standing context: Florida's locally acquired dengue outbreak (425 local cases of 745, largest in the continental US since 1935) prompted a CDC Level 3 emergency response in October; H5N1 is also in mink at a Utah farm (Becker's, Oct 23). Severity HIGH by rubric (PHEIC, highly lethal pathogen); not tripwire (k), which needs a new declaration or US person-to-person spread.

Heating oil: officials say it can top $6 a gallon at times, and a typical 200-gallon fill costs about $1,200, about 70% more than last year (mid-October congressional report via Northeastern, Nov 5); about 4.7 million US households heat with oil, mostly in New England; Gov. Healey earmarked about $49 million for emergency heating aid; ABCD reports 7,000 aid applications. Gasoline: national average $4.10 on Nov 5, a 2026 low but about 34% above a year ago (AAA). Drug shortages: 223 active in Q1 2026 per ASHP, rising for a second quarter (latest data found; April). Distillate stocks 13% below the five-year average (week to Oct 30); the Energy Department loaned about 300,000 barrels, a third of the Northeast Home Heating Oil Reserve, to four companies (announced Oct 21, deliveries by Nov 6; not the SPR); heating oil futures near $4.15, lowest since late August (Trading Economics, Nov 10). Cause: the Hormuz disruption and limited US refining. No rationing, empty-shelf reports or port closures found. Direction MIXED: gas falling, heating fuel high going into winter.